National property values declined 0.2% in June, with the median property now sitting at $806,512.
The June fall brought the three-month decline to 0.8% and left values 0.9% down year-on-year. Property values now stand 17.5% below their peak, representing a drop of $170,875 per property, or roughly 30% when inflation is factored in.
Dunedin and Christchurch both recorded gains in June, while Auckland, Wellington and Tauranga saw declines. Auckland's 0.5% drop was the steepest among main centres, with values falling $4,854 for the month. Auckland properties have now declined $323,070 from their peak.
Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson linked the June decline to turmoil from the Middle East conflict and rising interest rates. "Granted, the peace deal has improved the economic outlook. But the lagged effects of previous uncertainty are pretty clear to see in June's property value figures," Davidson said.
Wellington's property market showed particular weakness, with central city values down 0.9% in June and 1.7% over the quarter. Davidson said the approaching election was emerging as a market factor, with the capital's heavy reliance on public sector employment making it especially vulnerable. "Sellers may continue to have a difficult time as the year progresses," he said.
BNZ chief economist Mike Jones characterised the market as stuck in stasis for three years, with national prices flatlining since autumn 2023. Jones forecast no movement this year and a 4.5% rise next year.
Squirrel founder John Bolton said a recovery could take until 2031 to reach 2021 peak prices, and that figure would still represent a 20% real-terms decline once inflation was accounted for.