Forecasters are predicting an incoming El Niño weather pattern that could rank among the strongest on record, prompting farmers to adjust preparations now.
The pattern is expected to bring windy, dry spring conditions to northern and eastern regions, while western parts of the country could experience above normal rainfall. Canterbury and north Otago have already received very little rainfall heading into winter, with soils at risk of further drying.
Ministry for Primary Industries agriculture national response manager Andrew Curtis noted the impacts would differ by location, requiring farmers to plan for different scenarios. MPI guidance recommends farmers consider water infrastructure, supplementary feed production capability, feed deficit plans, and de-stocking options. Dry season risks include wildfire and heat stress effects on animals beyond water scarcity.
Otago Regional Council principal scientist Jason Augspurger highlighted variation within regions during strong El Niño years. In such years, western Otago near the alps typically experiences windier and wetter than average weather while central and eastern Otago tends toward hot, windy, dry conditions with potential drought.
Lincoln University applied economist Anita Wreford warned the economic impact may be larger than many realise. Previous El Niño events have led to GDP reductions of 0.4%, a figure that exceeded last year's annual growth.
The full economic impact for New Zealand depends on how other countries are affected by the global phenomenon. If other dairy-producing countries also see reduced production, global supply constraints could increase prices and offset some impacts for New Zealand producers while raising food prices for consumers.