The Opportunity Party has polled at 4.6% in the latest 1News-Verian poll, gaining 1.6 percentage points and sitting 0.4 points below the 5% threshold for guaranteed parliamentary representation.
The poll released on Tuesday night showed both National and Labour at their lowest combined result since 1996, prompting party leaders to address the prospect of working with Opportunity.
National leader Christopher Luxon described Opportunity as effectively backing Labour and the Greens. "They want a land tax, they want to make every New Zealander a beneficiary with the Universal Basic Income... I haven't looked at them too closely but it looks like a vote for Labour and the Greens frankly," he said. National has identified which parties it would work with, and Luxon said he had not seriously considered Opportunity.
Labour's Carmel Sepuloni declined to say whether Labour would work with Opportunity, saying "Labour's focused on getting as many votes as we can get, the other political parties, their policies are their policies... we're in this to win the election and so we're focused on what we're doing." Labour has ruled out working with National but will decide on other parties closer to the election.
Greens co-leader Marama Davidson accused Opportunity of copying Green Party policies and conceding to National on conservation. "They're not even in Parliament yet, and they're already conceding to the National Party and failing to properly protect public conservation lands," she said. Davidson claimed Opportunity is willing to enable Luxon to form government again.
NZ First leader Winston Peters dismissed the party, saying "Oh look, look, look, look it's a party of consultants. It sounds fantastic until the invoices come in."
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong attributed other parties' responses to tribalism in New Zealand politics. The party has declared its intention to take NZ First's role as kingmaker. "We won't be compromising on our values, and we'll walk away if we have to, but we will be pushing really hard to advocate for the things that voters are supporting us for," Wong said.
Wong said Opportunity shares environmental goals with the Greens but has distinct innovation policies, and criticized the Greens for ruling out working with National, saying this limits their ability to protect environmental gains across political cycles. Opportunity's willingness to work with either major bloc distinguishes it from the Greens.