The left bloc would command 64 seats in Parliament against 60 for the right under the latest Verian poll, despite Labour dropping five percentage points to 32%.
Major parties at historic lows
Labour's 32% result came from the poll conducted between 13 and 17 June 2026, while National fell one point to 29%. The figures represent the weakest showing for the major parties since New Zealand adopted proportional representation three decades ago.
For National, the 29% result is the party's worst performance under Christopher Luxon's leadership in this polling series. The result would deliver National 37 seats compared to 41 for Labour.
Greens surge as minor parties gain ground
The Greens climbed two points to 13%, which would translate to 17 seats. NZ First polled at 11% for 15 seats, while ACT registered 6% for eight seats.
ACT's result marks the party's fourth consecutive decline in Verian polling. Te Pāti Māori polled at 1.8% but would bring six seats, with the left bloc calculation contingent on the party holding all six of its electorate seats. The Opportunity Party recorded 4.6%.
Leadership ratings and undecided voters
Christopher Luxon rose two points to 18% in preferred prime minister polling, while Chris Hipkins fell three points to 16%. It was the first time Hipkins has trailed Luxon in this measure in the Verian series.
Winston Peters polled at 10% in the leadership question, followed by Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick at 6% and ACT leader David Seymour at 4%.
The proportion of voters who said they did not know or refused to say who they would support stood at 14%, up five points from the previous poll.
Verian surveyed 1001 eligible voters using mobile phone calls and online panels. At 95% confidence, the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.