Labour has fallen to 32% and National to 29% in the latest 1News Verian poll, representing the lowest combined support for the two major parties since the first MMP election in 1996.
Labour dropped 5 percentage points while National fell 1 point. The 29% result is National's weakest under Christopher Luxon's leadership in the Verian poll series. The poll projects the left bloc would secure 64 seats to the coalition's 60.
New Zealand First polled at 11%, up 1 point, while ACT dropped 1 point to 6%.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he was not concerned by the result, telling reporters National needed to communicate its policy vision more effectively to voters. "National has a long-term plan for the economy. It's about growing the economy, it's making sure life is more affordable for people. That's the job between now and the election," he said.
Labour deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni said voters still wanted to replace the current administration despite Labour's decline. She said the poll differed from other recent surveys showing Labour performing more strongly. "But what is certainly consistent is that National is featuring in the high twenties, and that has been over multiple polls over a number of weeks," Sepuloni said.
National deputy leader Nicola Willis acknowledged the party needed to grow its vote share. She said the coalition had provided stable government but National would argue it could deliver more with additional ministers at Cabinet. "It's our job to remind voters that if you vote for one of those other parties, and you dilute our vote, we'll have less persuasion around the Cabinet table, less persuasion in Parliament," Willis said.
National campaign chairperson Simeon Brown likened coalition partners New Zealand First and ACT to children, with National as parents keeping the peace.
Sepuloni said Labour was not ruling parties in or out until closer to the election, except for having ruled out National.